Import Price Uncertainty and the Distribution of Income
估计美国石油和非石油进口需求函数，假设进口价格不确定，发现不确定性降低福利、进口和总产出，且对劳动伤害大于资本，但影响很小。
In this paper we estimate oil and nonoil import demand functions for the United States under the assumption that import prices are uncertain. Both import demand functions are formally derived from an expected utility maximization problem, treating imports as inputs to the technology. The model allows us to test for risk aversion and to assess the impact of uncertainty on the volume of imports, gross output, and the distribution of income. We find that uncertainty leads to a reduction in welfare, imports, and gross output. Moreover, it hurts labor relatively much more than capital. The impact of uncertainty, however, is found to be quite small. © 1997 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology