Investment‐Specific News Shocks and U.S. Business Cycles
研究发现关于未来投资特定技术的新闻冲击是美国商业周期的重要驱动力，能解释产出、消费、投资和工时的大部分波动，并在过去十次衰退中九次发挥关键作用。
We provide robust evidence that news shocks about future investment‐specific technology (IST) constitute a significant force behind U.S. business cycles. Positive IST news shocks induce comovement, that is, raise output, consumption, investment, and hours. These shocks account for 70% of the business cycle variation in output, hours, and consumption, and 60% of the variation in investment, and have played an important role in 9 of the last 10 U.S. recessions. Our findings provide strong support for shifting focus to IST news shocks when investigating the role of news in driving U.S. business cycles.