The Economic and Policy Consequences of Catastrophes
用一般均衡模型研究灾难发生的概率及其对资本、GDP和财富的影响，并估算社会为降低灾难风险愿意支付的代价，对政策制定者和保险业有参考价值。
How likely is a catastrophic event that would substantially reduce the capital stock, GDP, and wealth? How much should society be willing to pay to reduce the probability or impact of a catastrophe? We answer these questions and provide a framework for policy analysis using a general equilibrium model of production, capital accumulation, and household preferences. Calibrating the model to economic and financial data, we estimate the mean arrival rate of shocks and their size distribution, the tax on consumption society would accept to limit the maximum size of a catastrophic shock, and the cost to insure against its impact.