Causality of U.S. Agricultural Prices and the Money Supply: Further Empirical Evidence
发现美国农产品价格与货币供给的因果检验结果对滞后项选择敏感，使用最小最终预测误差法确认了从货币基础到零售农产品价格的单向因果关系，但M2与零售价格、货币供给与农场价格之间均无因果关系。
Abstract Empirical evidence presented in this study indicates that the results of causality tests of U.S. agricultural prices and the money supply are sensitive to the lag selection. Relying on the minimum final prediction error causality testing technique, a unidirectional causal flow is established from the monetary base to retail level agricultural prices. No such flow is found to exist from M 2 to retail agricultural prices. When farm‐level agricultural prices are investigated, no causal flow exists from any of the measures of the money supply to farm prices.