Eliciting Risk and Time Preferences
通过实验联合揭示丹麦成年人口的风险与时间偏好，发现联合揭示得到的贴现率远低于以往研究，且结果支持指数贴现而非双曲贴现。
Abstract. We design experiments to jointly elicit risk and time preferences for the adult Danish population. We find that joint elicitation results in estimates of discount rates that are dramatically lower than those found in previous studies. Estimation of latent time preferences requires that one specify a theoretical structure to understand risk and time choices, but we show that our main results, based on exponential discounting and expected utility theory, are robust to popular alternative specifications such as hyperbolic discounting and prospect theoretic formulations of choice under uncertainty. We also report evidence favoring standard, exponential discounting over hyperbolic. These results have direct implications for attempts to elicit time preferences, as well as debates over the appropriate domain of the utility function when characterizing risk aversion and time consistency.