The U.S. Sugar Program and the Cuban Revolution
论证1956年美国糖业配额修订是1959年古巴革命的诱因之一，通过统计模拟和事件研究发现该修订对古巴糖出口有长期不利影响，且投资者在1953年后已将其纳入股票估值。
This article argues that one contributing factor to the Cuban Revolution of 1959 was the 1956 revision of U.S. sugar quotas. Its significance has been overlooked because its real economic impact was programmed to occur after 1959. Combining a statistical simulation and an event study of sugar companies' rates of return on equity, we show that the revision had adverse long-run consequences for sugar exports, and that forward-looking investors anticipated them and incorporated them into their valuation of sugar-company stocks after 1953. Further evidence shows that the Batista regime and prominent insurgents understood the vital nature of Cuba's sugar import quota.