Dynamic Portfolio Selection of NPD Programs Using Marginal Returns
针对预算约束下的新产品开发项目组合选择问题，利用边际分析构建动态资源分配模型，考虑市场回报不确定性、跨期效应和交互作用，给出最优策略的闭式解和定性决策规则。
Selecting program portfolios within a budget constraint is an important challenge in the management of new product development (NPD). Optimal portfolios are difficult to define because of the combinatorial complexity of project combinations. However, at the aggregate level of the strategic allocation of resources across product lines, investment in a program is not an all-or-nothing decision, but can be adjusted, resulting in a higher or lower program benefit (e.g., higher or lower quality). In some cases, resources can be adjusted even for individual projects. With this insight, one can use marginal analysis to optimally allocate the scarce budget. This article develops a dynamic model of resource allocation, taking into account multiple interacting factors, such as independent or correlated, uncertain market payoffs that change over time, increasing or decreasing returns from the NPD investment, carry-over of the investment benefit over multiple periods, and interactions across market segments. We characterize optimal policies in closed form and derive qualitative decision rules for managers.