Facts and Challenges from the Great Recession for Forecasting and Macroeconomic Modeling
更新了商业周期事实，重点分析由去杠杆和金融市场因素驱动的大衰退，解释为何经济模型和预测有时有效有时失效，为预测者和实证研究者提供挑战与启示。
This paper provides a survey of business cycle facts, updated to take account of recent data. Emphasis is given to the Great Recession, which was unlike most other postwar recessions in the United States in being driven by deleveraging and financial market factors. We document how recessions with financial market origins are different from those driven by supply or monetary policy shocks. This helps explain why economic models and predictors that work well at some times do poorly at other times. We discuss challenges for forecasters and empirical researchers in light of the updated business cycle facts.