An evaluation of the forecasts of the federal reserve: a pooled approach
分析1974-1997年美联储绿皮书对实际GDP、通胀和失业率的预测，通过跨预测期限联合信息的方法，发现通胀预测存在系统性偏差和预测平滑现象。
Abstract The Federal Reserve Greenbook forecasts of real GDP, inflation and unemployment are analysed for the period 1974–1997. We consider whether these forecasts exhibit systematic bias, and whether efficient use is made of information, that is, whether revisions to these forecasts over time are predictable. Rather than analyse the forecasts separately for each horizon of interest, we discuss and implement methods that pool information over horizons. We conclude that there is evidence of systematic bias and of forecast smoothing of the inflation forecasts. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.