Keynes, uncertainty and interest rates
探讨凯恩斯《通论》中不确定性在利率理论中的作用，指出现代概率论创新可捕捉其洞见，但不确定性无法支撑凯恩斯的论证，结论可能仅需风险概念即可成立。
Uncertainty plays an important role in The General Theory, particularly in the theory of interest rates. Keynes did not provide a theory of uncertainty, but he did make some enlightening remarks about the direction he thought such a theory should take. I argue that some modern innovations in the theory of probability allow us to build a theory which captures these Keynesian insights. If this is the right theory, however, uncertainty cannot carry its weight in Keynes's arguments. This does not mean that the conclusions of these arguments are necessarily mistaken; in their best formulation they may succeed with merely an appeal to risk.