The Performance of Forecast-Based Monetary Policy Rules Under Model Uncertainty
用五个不同的宏观经济模型检验基于预测的货币政策规则，发现对一年后通胀预测和当前产出缺口做出反应、且具有较大政策惯性的规则最为稳健，而更长预测期的规则易导致不确定性。
We investigate the performance of forecast-based monetary policy rules using five macroeconomic models that reflect a wide range of views on aggregate dynamics. We identify the key characteristics of rules that are robust to model uncertainty; such rules respond to the one-year-ahead inflation forecast and to the current output gap and incorporate a substantial degree of policy inertia. In contrast, rules with longer forecast horizons are less robust and are prone to generating indeterminacy. Finally, we identify a robust benchmark rule that performs very well in all five models over a wide range of policy preferences.