扑克玩家在大赢大输后的行为

Poker Player Behavior After Big Wins and Big Losses

Management Science · 2009
被引 97
人大 A+FT50UTD24ABS 4*

中文导读

研究发现经验丰富的扑克玩家在赢或输大额赌注后会改变打法,尤其在大输后更不谨慎,试图靠运气翻本,这符合前景理论的保本假设,提示投资者大亏后应暂停或接受监督。

Abstract

We find that experienced poker players typically change their style of play after winning or losing a big pot—most notably, playing less cautiously after a big loss, evidently hoping for lucky cards that will erase their loss. This finding is consistent with Kahneman and Tversky's (Kahneman, D., A. Tversky. 1979. Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica 47(2) 263–292) break-even hypothesis and suggests that when investors incur a large loss, it might be time to take a vacation or be monitored closely.

行为金融前景理论盈亏平衡效应风险决策