Environmental Policy Uncertainty and Marketable Permit Systems: The Dutch Phosphate Quota Program
用期权方法分析政策不确定性如何影响农户对可交易配额的投资，并以荷兰养猪业磷酸盐配额为例进行实证检验，发现政策不确定性导致的期权价值存在微弱证据。
Tradable permits are generally considered as an efficient instrument to regulate pollution by individual producers. However, uncertainty about changes in or possible discontinuation of the program could make individual farmers reluctant to invest in tradable permits. This article uses the option approach to derive a theoretical model that shows the impact of policy uncertainty on investment in tradable quota. The empirical assessment provides weak evidence for the existence of option values due to policy uncertainty for phosphate quota in swine production in the Netherlands.