Reflections on the Natural Rate Hypothesis
检验了失业率偏离自然率能否预测通胀变化，发现NAIRU假说通过三项测试，且近年NAIRU大幅下降，因此无需对宏观经济政策施加严格限制。
Does the deviation of unemployment from some natural rate provide a robust and useful way to predict changes in the inflation rate? Can economists explain why the NAIRU changes over time? Is the NAIRU a useful way to frame policy discussions despite the uncertainty surrounding its precise level? The NAIRU hypothesis passes all three tests. Recent research shows that the NAIRU has fallen dramatically in the last decade. This paper refutes the need for a highly restrictive bias in macroeconomic policy because small deviations from the NAIRU will lead to only small, possibly easily correctable, changes in the inflation rate.