Financial Crash, Commodity Prices, and Global Imbalances
认为当前金融危机源于全球资产稀缺，导致资本流入美国并形成资产泡沫；危机第一阶段加剧资产短缺，引发大宗商品特别是石油市场的泡沫，而石油美元回流美国稳定了其外部平衡；第二阶段危机蔓延至实体经济，抑制全球增长并最终摧毁大宗商品泡沫。
The current financial crisis has its origins in global asset scarcity, which led to large capital flows toward the United States and to the creation of asset bubbles that eventually burst. In its first phase the crash exacerbated the shortage of assets in the world economy, which triggered a partial re-creation of the bubble in commodities markets, and oil markets in particular. This bubble in turn led to an increase in petrodollars seeking financial assets in the United States, which became a source of stability for the U.S. external balance. The second phase of the crisis is more conventional and began to emerge in the summer of 2008, when it became apparent that the financial crisis would permeate the real economy and sharply slow global growth. This slowdown worked to reverse the tight commodity market conditions required for a bubble to develop, ultimately destroying the commodity bubble.