Do Futures Benefit Farmers?
通过模拟分析，研究期货对可储存商品生产者的福利及市场、农场层面的影响，以天然橡胶市场为例，发现期货可带来显著效应，但采用者的福利取决于其市场份额。
Abstract Simulations are used to analyze welfare and market‐ and farm‐level effects of making futures available to producers of a storable commodity. Key features of the model are the explicit consideration of dynamic impacts due to inventories, and of aggregate market effects associated with futures adoption by some producers. Application to the natural rubber market shows that futures availability can lead to sizable market‐ and farm‐level effects. Futures availability enhances consumer welfare, reduces nonadopter welfare, and yields important welfare gains for adopters when their market share is small and welfare losses when they account for a sufficiently large market share.