Empirical Testing of Real Option‐Pricing Models
首次用大量市场价格数据检验实物期权定价模型的预测能力，发现包含等待开发土地期权的模型能解释交易价格，且市场价格的期权溢价平均为6%。
ABSTRACT This research is the first to examine the empirical predictions of a real option‐pricing model using a large sample of market prices. We find empirical support for a model that incorporates the option to wait to develop land. The option model has explanatory power for predicting transactions prices over and above the intrinsic value. Market prices reflect a premium for the option to wait to invest that has a mean value of 6% in our sample. We also estimate implied standard deviations for individual commercial property prices ranging from 18 to 28% per year.