Trade Wars and Trade Talks with Data
用一个统一框架分析最优关税、贸易战关税水平、国际合作破裂的福利损失及未来多边谈判的潜在收益，发现最优关税平均62%，贸易战关税平均63%，合作破裂导致政府福利损失平均2.9%，未来谈判可带来0.5%的福利增益。
How large are optimal tariffs? What tariffs would prevail in a worldwide trade war? How costly would a breakdown of international trade policy cooperation be? And what is the scope for future multilateral trade negotiations? I address these and other questions using a unified framework which nests traditional, new trade, and political economy motives for protection. I find that optimal tariffs average 62 percent, world trade war tariffs average 63 percent, the government welfare losses from a breakdown of international trade policy cooperation average 2.9 percent, and the possible government welfare gains from future multilateral trade negotiations average 0.5 percent.