Rainfall Uncertainty and Occupational Choice in Agricultural Households of Rural Nepal
利用世界银行家庭数据和尼泊尔农村地区降雨信息，研究发现历史降雨不确定性显著影响家庭成员的职业选择，降雨越不稳定，农业户主家庭的其他成员越可能选择非农职业，而信贷和人力资本能缓解这一效应。
Abstract Although agriculture is the main occupation in rural Nepal, evidence suggests that households strive to diversify their sources of income. This paper investigates why this is the case. Using household data from the World Bank and information on rainfall for the various rural districts of Nepal, we find that occupational choice is highly correlated to the uncertainty associated with historical rainfall patterns. Where the head is employed in agriculture, other family members are less likely to choose agriculture as an occupation in districts where rain is more uncertain. Estimates indicate that for a 1 per cent increase in the coefficient of variation of rain, there is a 0.61 per cent decrease in the probability of choosing the same occupation as the household head, where the head is classified as self-employed in agriculture. The negative effect of rainfall uncertainty on occupational choice is less evident in households that have access to credit, and in households with relatively high levels of human capital.