Econometric modelling in the presence of evolutionary change
提出一种在演化型结构变化下构建计量模型的方法，基于自组织理论和逻辑扩散增长模型，并通过澳大利亚建筑协会存款的兴衰案例展示其对预测者和监管者的实用价值。
A methodology is offered which can be used to construct an econometric model in the presence of structural change of an evolutionary type. The theoretical basis for such modelling is drawn from the self-organisation approach and operationalised in the context of the logistic diffusion growth model. The latter is augmented to allow for the impact of exogenous effects upon both the diffusion rate and boundary limit. We show how the hypothesis of augmented logistic diffusion can be falsified using econometric methods. An illustrative case study is used, namely the growth and decline of Australian Building Society Deposits. With the aid of this example, it is shown how the approach could be of use to both economic forecasters and regulators in conditions of structural change where conventional econometric methods are often inappropriate.