Discounting in economic evaluations: stepping forward towards optimal decision rules
指出英国国家临床优化研究所(NICE)等机构要求健康效果与成本按相同贴现率处理的做法会导致次优决策,因为忽略了健康价值随时间的变化,并建议采用差异化贴现或明确处理健康价值变化的方法。
The National Institute for Clinical Excellence has recently changed its guidelines on discounting costs and effects in economic evaluations. In common with most other regulatory bodies it now requires that health effects should be discounted at the same rate as costs. We show that the guideline leads to sub-optimal decisions because it fails to account for the changing value of health. NICE (and other regulatory bodies) should either use differential discounting or stipulate how the changing value of health should otherwise be dealt with. We also show how binding health service budget constraints should be incorporated in evaluations.