Bayesian New Neoclassical Synthesis (Nns) Models: Modern Tools for Central Banks
讨论贝叶斯新新古典综合模型在货币政策分析与预测中的优势，结合微观基础与概率描述，适合研究商业周期波动来源、最优货币政策及经济预测，并给出两个分析示例。
This paper discusses the advantages of Bayesian New Neoclassical Synthesis models as tools for monetary policy analysis and forecasting. The combination of a sound, micro founded structure with a good probabilistic description of the observed data makes those models suitable for investigating the structural sources of business cycle fluctuations, for analysing optimal monetary policy responses to those developments and for making economic projections conditional on various policy assumptions. The paper gives two examples of such analysis.