A SEARCH FOR MULTIPLE EQUILIBRIA IN URBAN INDUSTRIAL STRUCTURE*
利用二战期间盟军对日本城市和工业的轰炸作为外生冲击，开发了一种新的实证检验方法，分析114个城市8个制造业行业的数据，发现没有证据支持多重均衡的存在，城市在巨大冲击后通常会恢复其人口、制造业份额乃至原有产业结构。
ABSTRACT Theories featuring multiple equilibria are widespread across economics. Yet little empirical work has asked if multiple equilibria are features of real economies. We examine this in the context of the Allied bombing of Japanese cities and industries in World War II. We develop a new empirical test for multiple equilibria and apply it to data for 114 Japanese cities in eight manufacturing industries. The data provide no support for the existence of multiple equilibria. In the aftermath even of immense shocks, a city typically recovers not only its population and its share of aggregate manufacturing, but even the industries it had before.