A New Product Growth for Model Consumer Durables
提出一个预测新产品首次购买时机的增长模型，用11种耐用消费品的历史数据验证，模型基于消费者创新与模仿行为，能较好预测销售峰值及其时间，并给出了彩电的长期销售预测。
(This article originally appeared in Management Science, January 1969, Volume 15, Number 5, pp. 215–227, published by The Institute of Management Sciences.) A growth model for the timing of initial purchase of new products is developed and tested empirically against data for eleven consumer durables. The basic assumption of the model is that the timing of a consumer's initial purchase is related to the number of previous buyers. A behavioral rationale for the model is offered in terms of innovative and imitative behavior. The model yields good predictions of the sales peak and the timing of the peak when applied to historical data. A long-range forecast is developed for the sales of color television sets.