Uncertainty as a Propagating Force in The Great Depression
论证了1930年代初的银行危机和金本位崩溃通过加剧利率不确定性，加重了大萧条的严重程度。研究发现，利率风险溢价在银行危机期间上升，并与金本位崩溃相关的金融市场波动正相关，且能解释大萧条期间总投资支出的大部分变化。
This article argues that the banking crises and collapse of the international gold standard in the early 1930s contributed to the severity of the Great Depression by increasing interest-rate uncertainty. Two pieces of evidence support this conclusion. First, uncertainty (as measured by the risk premium embedded in the term structure of interest rates) rises during the banking crises and is positively linked to financial-market volatility associated with the breakdown in the gold standard. Second, the risk premium explains a significant proportion of the variation in aggregate investment spending during the Great Depression.