The Value of Ideal Contingency Markets in Agriculture
比较了无应急市场的不完全市场均衡与引入期货和作物保险市场的完全市场均衡，通过比较静态和福利分析发现应急市场能提高经济效率，但农民和消费者不一定都受益，尤其在农产品需求缺乏价格弹性时可能降低农民福利。
Abstract An incomplete markets equilibrium, in which no contingency markets are available, is compared to a complete markets equilibrium formed by introducing a futures market and a crop insurance market. The two regimes are compared using comparative static and welfare analyses. Numerical examples highlight important characteristics of the model and illustrate how the effects of introducing contingency markets can be quantified. The main conclusions are that contingency markets in agriculture increase economic efficiency, but there is no guarantee that farmers and consumers both benefit. It is found that futures and crop insurance markets may reduce farmer welfare when the demand for farm products is price inelastic.