Saving, Wealth and the Transition from Transfers to Individual Responsibility: The Cases of Taiwan and the United States*
研究了人口老龄化下转移支付减少对生命周期财富和储蓄的影响，通过模拟分析台湾家庭转移体系衰落和美国社保改革，发现储蓄会短暂激增，人均资本上升并维持高位。
Abstract Under the life‐cycle saving model, population aging leads to an increased demand for life‐cycle wealth. Changes in transfer systems create or destroy one component of life‐cycle wealth—transfer wealth. The decline in the familial transfer system in Taiwan and reform of the US Social Security system are two examples of ways that transfer wealth is reduced. The combined effects of aging and changes in transfer systems are analyzed using simulation analysis. Rapid aging and radical decline in transfer systems lead to a large but transitory surge in aggregate saving. Capital per worker increases rapidly and remains at a high level.