Random Walks in World Money Rates
检验了主要工业化国家的利率变化,发现短期利率变化存在显著负序列相关,长期则趋近随机游走,表明短期利率呈均值回归过程。
Interest rate changes in major industrialized countries are examined and found to exhibit significant deviations from random walks. When measured over short horizons, interest rate changes demonstrate significant negative serial correlation. As the time horizon is extended, the negative dependencies decline and interest rate changes approach random walks. In general, the evidence suggests that short‐term interest rate changes in major industrialized countries follow a mean‐reverting process.