Changing with the Tide: Semiparametric Estimation of Preference Dynamics
通过洪水风险暴露的选择实验，对比了发现偏好假说与连贯任意性理论，并开发了半参数局部多项Logit模型来估计偏好动态，发现起始点偏差随时间衰减，支持发现偏好假说。
We contrast the discovered preference hypothesis against the theory of coherent arbitrariness in a split-sample stated choice experiment on flood-risk exposure. A semiparametric local multinomial logit model is developed as an alternative to the Swait and Louviere (1993) test procedure controlling for preference dynamics within and between samples. The proposed model supports the discovered preference hypothesis by means of a decaying starting point bias. The Swait and Louviere (1993) test procedure reaches a different conclusion. It rejects the assumption of stable preferences, but most preference dynamics tend to be smoothed out, causing a more erratic pattern of preference dynamics. <i></i>