Housing Return and Construction Cycles
构建住宅市场一般均衡模型，揭示住房回报、建设、抵押贷款与家庭维护行为的内生关系，发现贷款价值比可预测未来住房回报，开发商行为也能预测回报。
This paper presents a general equilibrium model of the residential housing market. Within the model housing returns, housing construction, mortgage loan terms, and household maintenance behavior are all endogenous. These interacting elements tie expected housing returns to expected changes in family wealth. As a result: (1) families are credit constrained; (2) mortgage loan‐to‐value ratios can be used to forecast future housing returns; (3) developers acquire land when expected housing returns lie above the rate of interest and then develop when housing returns lie below. Thus, their holdings and construction decisions also forecast housing returns.