Causation, Spending, and Taxes: Sand in the Sandbox or Tax Collector for the Welfare State?
利用结构干预下计量关系不变性的方法，分析联邦支出与税收间的因果关系，发现战后两个时期因果结构不同：60年代中期前税收导致支出，之后两者因果独立。
Causal relations between federal expenditure and taxation are analyzed using an approach based on the invariance of econometric relationships in the face of structural interventions. Institutional evidence for interventions or changes of regime combined with econometric tests for structural breaks are used to investigate the relative stability of conditional and marginal probability distributions for each variable. The patterns of stability are the products of underlying causal order. We find two distinct causal structures operating in the postwar era. Before the mid-1960's, taxes appear to cause spending. After the late 1960's, taxes and spending are causally independent.