The Time-Varying Volatility of Macroeconomic Fluctuations
研究美国宏观经济变量波动性在战后时期的重要变化，通过估计允许结构创新波动性时变的DSGE模型，发现投资均衡条件特有的冲击解释了近二十年波动性大幅下降的大部分原因。
We investigate the sources of the important shifts in the volatility of US macroeconomic variables in the postwar period. To this end, we propose the estimation of DSGE models allowing for time variation in the volatility of the structural innovations. We apply our estimation strategy to a large-scale model of the business cycle and find that shocks specific to the equilibrium condition of investment account for most of the sharp decline in volatility of the last two decades.