Measuring the Impact of Fiscal Policy in the Face of Anticipation: A Structural VAR Approach
提出一种适用于财政冲击被预期时的结构向量自回归估计方法，并用美国数据检验预期效应是否推翻现有文献结论，发现预期效应并未改变已有发现。
Empirical estimates of the impact of government spending shocks disagree on central issues such as the size of output multipliers and the responses of consumption and the real wage. One explanation for the disagreement is that fiscal shocks are often anticipated. Due to misspecification of the information set, anticipation effects may invalidate SVAR estimates of impulse responses. We use economic theory to derive a fiscal SVAR estimator that is applicable when fiscal shocks are anticipated. We study its properties and apply it to US data. We fail to find evidence that anticipation effects overturn the existing findings from the fiscal SVAR literature. Copyright © The Author(s). Journal compilation © Royal Economic Society 2010.