THE ROLE OF LABOR AND MARRIAGE MARKETS, PREFERENCE HETEROGENEITY, AND THE WELFARE SYSTEM IN THE LIFE CYCLE DECISIONS OF BLACK, HISPANIC, AND WHITE WOMEN*
利用NLSY79数据构建年轻女性生命周期决策的动态模型，模拟劳动力市场、婚姻市场、偏好异质性和福利制度如何解释少数族裔与白人女性的行为差异，并预测新福利制度下新世代的行为变化。
Using data from the NLSY79, we structurally estimate a dynamic model of the life cycle decisions of young women. The women make sequential joint decisions about school attendance, work, marriage, fertility, and welfare participation. We use the model to perform counterfactual simulations designed to shed light on three questions: (1) How much of observed minority–majority differences in behavior can be attributed to differences in labor market opportunities, marriage market opportunities, and preference heterogeneity? (2) How does the welfare system interact with these factors to augment those differences? (3) How can new cohorts that grow up under the new welfare system (Temporary Aid for Needy Families) be expected to behave compared to older cohorts?