A DYNAMIC MODEL OF REGIONAL POPULATION GROWTH AND DECLINE*
构建了一个两部门动态模型，通过迁移、收入和宜居性方程分析区域人口变化，发现正向收入和宜居性冲击会提升区域人口，但宜居性冲击存在正反两种效应。
ABSTRACT. This paper presents a two‐sector dynamic model of regional population change. The model contains a migration equation, an earnings equation, and an amenity equation for each region. In the context of this model, migration is seen as a disequilibrium process through which the regional populations move towards equilibrium positions. Migration occurs when one region is perceived to be superior to the other on the basis of its earnings and amenity levels. Equilibrium is achieved when population movements between the regions eliminate any differences in their relative attractiveness. A comparative‐static analysis of the model is presented to analyze the effects of policy changes and exogenous shocks on the distribution of population among the regions. We find that positive shocks to regional earnings and to amenity tend to increase the population of a region. However the amenity shocks generate two opposing effects on regional population, with stability of the model requiring that the expansionary effect of the amenity shock outweigh the contractionary effect.