Harvests and Financial Crises in Gold Standard America
研究发现，美国内战后的金本位时代，棉花收成因天气等外部因素波动，通过出口收入和金融市场渠道引发金融危机；若当时有中央银行，这些危机本可避免。
Most American financial crises of the postbellum gold standard era were caused by fluctuations in the cotton harvest due to exogenous factors such as weather. The transmission channel ran through export revenues and financial markets under the pre-1914 monetary regime. A poor cotton harvest depressed export revenues and reduced international demand for American assets, which depressed American stock prices, drained deposits from money center banks and precipitated a business cycle downturn—conditions that bred financial crises. The crises caused by cotton harvests could have been prevented by an American central bank, even under gold standard constraints.