Management Forecasts in Japan: An Empirical Study of Forecasts that Are Effectively Mandated
研究日本上市公司管理层预测，发现初始预测普遍偏乐观，但后续向下修正使盈利惊喜非负；乐观程度与公司业绩负相关，且在高内部人持股、小公司及有乐观历史的公司中更明显。
ABSTRACT: We study management forecasts in Japan, where forecasts are effectively mandated but managers have considerable latitude over the numbers they release. We find that managers' initial earnings forecasts for a fiscal year are systematically upward-biased but that they revise their forecasts downward during the fiscal year so that most earnings surprises are non-negative. Managers' initial forecast optimism is inversely related to firm performance, and is more pronounced for firms with higher levels of insider ownership, smaller firms, and firms with a history of forecast optimism. The fact that managers' forecasts tend to be consistently optimistic suggests that reputation effects are insufficient to ensure managerial forecast accuracy. We also find that the information content of managers' forecasts is related to proxies for whether market participants view the forecasts as credible.