Demographic Trends, the Dividend-Price Ratio, and the Predictability of Long-Run Stock Market Returns
研究发现对数股息价格比中存在由中年与青年人口比决定的缓慢趋势，该趋势的偏离能解释股票市场回报的暂时但持久的波动，为股息价格比的预测能力提供了基于世代交叠模型的解释。
Abstract This paper documents the existence of a slowly evolving trend in the log dividend-price ratio, DP t , determined by a demographic variable, MY t : the middle-aged to young ratio. Deviations of DP t from this long-run component explain transitory but persistent fluctuations in stock market returns. The relation between MY t and DP t is a prediction of an overlapping generation model. The joint significance of MY and DP t in long-horizon forecasting regressions for market returns explains the mixed evidence on the ability of DP t to predict stock returns and provide a model-based interpretation of statistical corrections for breaks in the mean of this financial ratio.