How Closely Do Hypothetical Surveys and Laboratory Experiments Predict Field Behavior?
比较了三种偏好诱导方法（假设选择、非假设选择、非假设排序）和三种计量模型（多项Logit、独立可用性Logit、随机参数Logit）预测零售购物行为的能力，发现非假设方法尤其是排序法预测效果更好。
Abstract We compare the ability of three preference elicitation methods (hypothetical choices, nonhypothetical choices, and nonhypothetical rankings) and three discrete‐choice econometric models (the multinomial logit [MNL], the independent availability logit [IAL], and the random parameter logit [RPL]) to predict actual retail shopping behavior in three different product categories (ground beef, wheat flour, and dishwashing liquid). Overall, we find a high level of external validity. Our specific results suggest that the nonhypothetical elicitation approaches, especially the nonhypothetical ranking method, outperformed the hypothetical choice experiment in predicting retail sales. We also find that the RPL can have superior predictive performance, but that the MNL predicts equally well in some circumstances.