What Moves OECD Real Interest Rates?
对五大OECD经济体的事前实际利率进行结构时间序列分析，发现美国实际和名义冲击是利率持续性的最重要原因，而1980年代初实际利率上升主要源于名义冲击。
This paper conducts a structural time-series analysis of ex-ante real interest rates of the five major OECD economies. The relationships of rates to permanent and temporary real and nominal shocks appear to be qualitatively consistent with predictions of stochastic general equilibrium business cycle models. U.S. real and nominal shocks are found to be the most important causes of persistence in rates, but only nominal shocks cause dynamic movements that are coherent across all countries. The rise in real interest rates in the early 1980s was mainly due to nominal shocks; real shocks played little or no role.