Real Options and Escalation of Commitment: A Behavioral Analysis of Capital Investment Decisions
通过实验检验了在净现值分析中加入实物期权能否减少决策者在收到负面反馈后继续投入资源的承诺升级倾向，发现使用实物期权能显著降低该行为。
ABSTRACT: This study uses experimental methods to explore whether incorporating real options into net present value analysis can reduce escalation of commitment, or the tendency of decision makers to continue to commit resources to a project after receiving negative feedback. This reduction in escalation behavior should occur because the incorporation of real options offers the user greater cognitive accessibility to the possibility of project abandonment. Findings indicate that users of real options exhibit less escalation of commitment than do users of net present value analysis alone. The main result demonstrates that the use of real options in capital budgeting can affect the behavior and decisions of the user even in an experimental setting that controls for the informational advantage of using real options.