THE FUTURE OF EEC DAIRY EXPORTS TO THE LESS‐DEVELOPED COUNTRIES: AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS OF LONG‐RANGE PROJECTIONS AND MODEL STUDIES
基于预测研究，欧共体对欠发达国家的乳制品出口将增加，但欠发达国家不太可能从自由贸易中获益，且模型研究未能就贸易影响达成共识。
From recent projection studies it can be concluded that future dairy exports by the EEC to the Less Developed Countries (LDCs) will increase. The self‐sufficiency ratio for dairy products in the EEC will increase because of strong, technologically induced, growth of production potential. On the one hand, surplus production in the EEC will be difficult to curtail as the unfavourable conditions of the general economy will impede outmigration of inputs. Import demand, on the other hand, is projected to increase as many populations will be moving into stages of higher growth of income. Thus, input restrictions of agriculture in industrialised countries may be unnecessary. In this paper some agricultural economic aspects of the implied trade relationships are discussed. It is concluded that LDCs are not likely to benefit from gains of trade as predicted by theory of free trade and international specialisation. From projections by model studies, however, no consensus emerged. Projection and model studies seem hardly suited to provide insight in the effects of international trade under conditions of imperfect competition.