时间一致性:平稳性与时间不变性

Time Consistency: Stationarity and Time Invariance

Econometrica · 2015
被引 204
人大 A+FT50ABS 4*

中文导读

通过实验设计分离时间一致、平稳和时间不变选择,发现至少一半被试时间一致,但仅四分之三表现出平稳选择,挑战了现时偏差偏好是时间不一致主因的观点。

Abstract

A sequence of experiments documents static and dynamic "preference reversals" between sooner-smaller and later-larger rewards, when the sooner reward could be immediate. The theoretically motivated design permits separate identification of time consistent, stationary, and time invariant choices. At least half of the subjects are time consistent, but only three-quarters of them exhibit stationary choices. About half of subjects with time inconsistent choices have stationary preferences. These results challenge the view that present-bias preferences are the main source of time inconsistent choices.

时间一致性平稳性时间不变性偏好反转