Microeconomic Adjustment Hazards and Aggregate Dynamics
提出调整风险函数来刻画微观主体的非连续调整行为，并证明非恒定风险能产生复杂的总体动态。以美国制造业就业数据为例，发现递增风险模型比恒定风险部分调整模型更能描述总体就业动态。
The basic premise of this paper is that understanding aggregate dynamics requires considering that agents are heterogeneous and that they do not adjust continuously to the shocks they perceive. We provide a general characterization of lumpy behavior at the microeconomic level in terms of an adjustment-hazard function, which relates the probability that a unit adjusts to the deviation of its state variable from its moving target. We characterize rich, cross-sectionally dependent aggregate dynamics generated by nonconstant hazards. We present an example based on U. S. manufacturing employment and job flows, and find that increasinghazard models outperform constant-hazard-partial-adjustment models in describing aggregate employment dynamics.