Optimal Monetary Policy with an Uncertain Cost Channel
研究中央银行在不确定成本渠道大小的情况下如何制定最优货币政策，发现不确定性会导致利率调整更加谨慎，支持Brainard的谨慎原则。
The cost channel of monetary transmission describes a supply‐side effect of interest rates on firms' costs. Previous research has found this effect to vary, both over time and across countries. Moreover, the cyclical nature of financial frictions is likely to amplify the cost channel. This paper derives optimal monetary policy in the presence of uncertainty about the true size of the cost channel. In a min–max approach, the central bank derives an optimal policy plan to be implemented by a Taylor rule. It is shown that uncertainty about the cost channel leads to an attenuated interest rate setting behavior. In this respect, the Brainard (1967) principle of cautious policy in the face of uncertainty continues to hold in both a Bayesian and a min–max framework.