WHAT DO WE KNOW ABOUT THE PROFITABILITY OF TECHNICAL ANALYSIS?
综述了技术分析盈利性的实证证据，将研究分为早期和现代两类，发现现代研究中有56项支持技术交易策略能产生经济利润，但多数研究存在数据窥探等问题。
Abstract The purpose of this paper is to review the evidence on the profitability of technical analysis. The empirical literature is categorized into two groups, ‘early’ and ‘modern’ studies, according to the characteristics of testing procedures. Early studies indicate that technical trading strategies are profitable in foreign exchange markets and futures markets, but not in stock markets. Modern studies indicate that technical trading strategies consistently generate economic profits in a variety of speculative markets at least until the early 1990s. Among a total of 95 modern studies, 56 studies find positive results regarding technical trading strategies, 20 studies obtain negative results, and 19 studies indicate mixed results. Despite the positive evidence on the profitability of technical trading strategies, most empirical studies are subject to various problems in their testing procedures, e.g. data snooping, ex post selection of trading rules or search technologies, and difficulties in estimation of risk and transaction costs. Future research must address these deficiencies in testing in order to provide conclusive evidence on the profitability of technical trading strategies.