An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output
利用混合结构VAR/事件研究方法，识别美国战后政府支出和税收冲击对产出的动态影响，发现支出冲击正向影响产出，税收冲击负向影响产出，且两者均对投资有强烈负效应。
This paper characterizes the dynamic effects of shocks in government spending and taxes on U. S. activity in the postwar period. It does so by using a mixed structural VAR/event study approach. Identification is achieved by using institutional information about the tax and transfer systems to identify the automatic response of taxes and spending to activity, and, by implication, to infer fiscal shocks. The results consistently show positive government spending shocks as having a positive effect on output, and positive tax shocks as having a negative effect. One result has a distinctly nonstandard flavor: both increases in taxes and increases in government spending have a strong negative effect on investment spending.