HAC估计中的预白化偏差

Prewhitening Bias in HAC Estimation*

Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics · 2005
被引 14
人大 AABS 3

中文导读

分析HAC估计中预白化滤波导致的小样本偏差,提出递归去均值方法缓解偏差,并给出新边界条件规则改善KPSS检验的检验水平和检验功效。

Abstract

Abstract Heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation consistent (HAC) estimation commonly involves the use of prewhitening filters based on simple autoregressive models. In such applications, small sample bias in the estimation of autoregressive coefficients is transmitted to the recolouring filter, leading to HAC variance estimates that can be badly biased. The present paper provides an analysis of these issues using asymptotic expansions and simulations. The approach we recommend involves the use of recursive demeaning procedures that mitigate the effects of small‐sample autoregressive bias. Moreover, a commonly used restriction rule on the prewhitening estimates (that first‐order autoregressive coefficient estimates, or largest eigenvalues, >0.97 be replaced by 0.97) adversely interferes with the power of unit‐root and [ Kwiatkowski, Phillips, Schmidt and Shin (1992) Journal of Econometrics , Vol. 54, pp. 159–178] (KPSS) tests. We provide a new boundary condition rule that improves the size and power properties of these tests. Some illustrations of the effects of these adjustments on the size and power of KPSS testing are given. Using prewhitened HAC estimates and the new boundary condition rule, the KPSS test is consistent, in contrast to KPSS testing that uses conventional prewhitened HAC estimates [ Lee, J. S. (1996) Economics Letters , Vol. 51, pp. 131–137].

预白化偏误HAC估计KPSS检验边界条件规则