America's Historical Experience with Low Inflation
指出1970年代的高通胀是美国和平时期作为硬通货国家的异常，预测未来美国将持续低通胀，并分析低通胀对债务通缩、实际利率和投资增长的影响。
The inflation of the 1970s was a marked deviation from America's typical peacetime historical pattern as a hard-money country. We should expect America to continue to be a hard-money--low inflation--country in the future, at least in peacetime. The low rate of future inflation that we thus forecast changes the balance of macroeconomic risks and opportunities. The risk of debt-deflation-mediated recessions is somewhat higher because a low trend rate of goods-and-services price index inflation somewhat increases the chances of deflation. But it does not raise such risks as much as one might think. The failure of the Fisher effect to hold empirically means that a low-inflation era will in all likelihood be a high real interest rate era. But such high real interest rates do not appear to significantly discourage investment or growth.