Monetary Policy and the Natural Rate of Interest
研究了当利率长期大幅偏离均衡时，货币政策跟踪自然利率的重要性。比较了标准新凯恩斯模型和含流动性政府债券的模型，发现无法跟踪自然利率的政策规则表现差，而一阶差分规则效果出奇好，尤其在模型不确定性下优势更明显。
It is most important for monetary policy to track the natural rate of interest when interest rates take large and sustained swings away from their long‐run equilibrium values. Here, we study two models: a standard New Keynesian model and one in which government bonds provide liquidity. Policy rules that cannot track the natural rate perform poorly in both models, but are especially bad in the second because of sustained movements in the natural rate induced by fiscal shocks. First difference rules, on the other hand, do surprisingly well. When model uncertainty is taken into account, the dominance of the first difference rule is even more pronounced.